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Free Content Mathematical modelling of SARS and other infectious diseases in China: a review

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Abstract:

Summary Objective 

To give an overview of the recent history of publications on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases in the Chinese literature, and a more detailed review of the models on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Method 

Literature review through the Chinese CAJ full-text database. Results 

The number of Chinese publications on mathematical modelling has at least quadrupled since the SARS epidemic in 2003. This increase not only included papers on SARS, but also on various other infectious diseases, indicating a substantial expansion of modelling experience in China. Typical problems of most studies were poor availability of data and lack of involvement of disease experts and decision-makers rendering the studies less useful for policies on control. Conclusions 

We expect that the recent experience on modelling and current better access to and exchange of epidemiological data have paved the way for a more substantial role of this discipline during possible future outbreaks of infectious diseases. By making Chinese modelling initiatives more visible to non-Chinese readers, we hope to attract more international collaborators.

Keywords: China; infectious diseases; mathematical modelling; review; severe acute respiratory syndrome

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02244.x

Affiliations: 1:  Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing, P.R. China 2:  Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Publication date: November 1, 2009

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