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Free Content Rift Valley fever in West Africa: the role of space in endemicity

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Abstract:

Summary Rift Valley fever is an endemic vector-borne disease in West Africa, which mainly affects domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. The aetiological mechanisms of its endemicity remain under debate. We used a simple spatially explicit model to assess the possibility of endemicity without wild animals providing a permanent virus reservoir. Our model takes into account the vertical transmission in some mosquito species, the rainfall-driven emergence of their eggs and local and distant contacts because of herd migration. Endemicity without such a permanent virus reservoir would be impossible in a single site except when there is a strictly periodic rainfall pattern; but it would be possible when there are herd movements and sufficient inter-site variability in rainfall, which drives mosquito emergence.

French
La fièvre de la vallée du Rift (RVF) est une arbovirose transmise par des moustiques et originaire d'Afrique orientale, où elle a sans doute un réservoir viral dans la faune sauvage. Au cours du XX siècle, elle s'est répandue en Afrique de l'Ouest où elle affecte les ruminants domestiques et parfois les humains. Nous utilisons un modèle spatialisé pour montrer comment elle peut y être devenue enzootique sans réservoir viral sauvage. Le modèle prend en compte la transmission verticale par certains moustiques, et l’éclosion pendant la saison des pluies d'oeufs infectés. L'enzooticité ne peut exister en un site unique, mais peut être maintenue par la migration des troupeaux à l’échelle régionale si la pluviométrie varie suffisamment entre les sites.

Keywords: Fiebre del Rift Valley; Fièvre de la vallée du Rift; Rift Valley fever; Sahel; herd movements; migration ds troupeaux; modelo espacial estocástico; modèle spatialisé; movimiento de rebaño; pluies; precipitaciones; rainfall; ruminants; spatial stochastic model

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01746.x

Affiliations: 1:  Unité BioMathématique, Ecole Vétérinaire de Lyon, Marcy l'Etoile, France 2:  CIRAD EMVT, Campus International de Baillarguet, Montpellier, France 3:  LIN, IRD, Montpellier, France 4:  SPEC, CEA Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, France

Publication date: December 1, 2006

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