Skip to main content

Free Content Development and Validation of a Functional Morbidity Index to Predict Mortality in Community-dwelling Elders

Download Article:

You have access to the full text article on a website external to Ingenta Connect.

Please click here to view this article on Wiley Online Library.

You may be required to register and activate access on Wiley Online Library before you can obtain the full text. If you have any queries please visit Wiley Online Library

OBJECTIVE: 

Functional measures have a great appeal for prognostic instruments because they are associated with mortality, they represent the end-impact of disease on the patient, and information about them can be obtained directly from the patient. However, there are no prognostic indices that have been developed for community-dwelling elders based primarily on functional measures. Our objective in this study was to develop and validate a prognostic index for 2-year mortality in community-dwelling elders, based on self-reported functional status, age, and gender. DESIGN: 

Population-based cohort study from 1993 to 1995. SETTING: 

Community-dwelling elders within the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 

Subjects, age ≥70 (N= 7,393), from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study. We developed the index in 4,516 participants (mean age 78, 84% white, 61% female), and validated it in 2,877 different participants (mean age 78, 73% white, 61% female). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 

Prediction of 2-year mortality using risk factors such as activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, additional measures of physical function, age, and gender. RESULTS: 

Overall mortality was 10% in the development cohort and 12% in the validation cohort. In the development cohort, 6 independent predictors of mortality were identified and weighted, using logistic regression models, to create a point scale: male gender, 2 points; age (76 to 80, 1 point; >80, 2 points); dependence in bathing, 1 point; dependence in shopping, 2 points; difficulty walking several blocks, 2 points; and difficulty pulling or pushing heavy objects, 1 point. We calculated risk scores for each patient by adding the points of each independent risk factor present. In the development cohort, 2-year mortality was 3% in the lowest risk group (0 to 2 points), 11% in the middle risk group (3 to 6 points), and 34% in the highest risk group (>7 points). In the validation cohort, 2-year mortality was 5% in the lowest risk group, 12% in the middle risk group, and 36% in the highest risk group. The c-statistics for the point system were 0.76 and 0.74 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: 

This prognostic index, which relies solely on self-reported functional status, age, and gender, provides a simple and accurate method of stratifying community-dwelling elders into groups at varying risk of mortality.

J GEN INTERN MED 2004;19:1027 –1033.
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Article Media
No Metrics

Keywords: activities of daily living; mortality; prognosis; survival

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 01 October 2004

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more