Skip to main content

Inclusion Probabilities and Dropout

Buy Article:

$51.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)



Recent discussions on a forensic discussion group highlighted the prevalence of a practice in the application of inclusion probabilities when dropout is possible that is of significant concern. In such cases, there appears to be an unpublished practice of calculation of an inclusion probability only for those loci at which the profile of interest (hereafter the suspect) is fully included among the alleles present in the crime scene sample and to omit those loci at which the suspect has alleles that are not fully represented among the alleles in the mixture. The danger is that this approach may produce apparently strong evidence against a surprisingly large fraction of noncontributors. In this paper, the risk associated with the approach of ignoring loci with discordant alleles is assessed by simulation.

Keywords: RMNE; dropout; exclusion probability; forensic science; inclusion probability; likelihood ratio; mixtures

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: University of Auckland—Statistics, Private Bag 92019 Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand. 2: ESR—Forensics, Private Bag 92021, Auckland, New Zealand.

Publication date: September 1, 2010


Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more
Real Time Web Analytics