Skip to main content

Two Items of Evidence, No Putative Source: An Inference Problem in Forensic Intelligence

Buy Article:

$43.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

ABSTRACT:

Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Data/Media
No Metrics

Keywords: Bayes' theorem; decision theory; forensic intelligence; forensic science; graphical models; scientific evidence

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: School of Criminal Justice, The University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland. 2: Department of Statistics, University Ca' Foscari, 30121 Venice, Italy.

Publication date: 2006-11-01

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more