Authors: ALEX ELLIOTT, J.¹; THACKERAY, STEPHEN J.¹; HUNTINGFORD, CHRIS²; JONES, RICHARD G.³

Source: Freshwater Biology, Volume 50, Number 8, August 2005 , pp. 1404-1411(8)

Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Abstract:

Summary

1. Linking a regional climate model (RCM) configured for contemporary atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with a phytoplankton community model (PROTECH) produced realistic simulations of 20 years of recent phytoplankton data from Bassenthwaite Lake, in the North-West of England.

2. Meteorological drivers were derived from the RCM to represent a future climate scenario involving a 1% per annum compound increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations until 2100. Using these drivers, PROTECH was run for another 20 year period representing the last two decades of the 21st century.

3. Comparison of these present and future simulations revealed likely impacts on the current seasonal phytoplankton development. Under future climate conditions, the simulated spring bloom showed an increase in cyanobacteria dominance caused by greater success of Planktothrix. Also, the summer cyanobacteria bloom declined earlier because of nutrient limitation caused by the increased spring growth. Overall productivity in the lake did not change.

4. Analysis showed that these predicted changes were driven by changes in water temperature, which were in turn triggered by the higher air temperatures predicted by the RCM.

Keywords: blooms; blue-green algae; climate change; cyanobacteria; diatoms

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2005.01409.x

Affiliations: 1: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, U.K. 2: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Wallingford, U.K. 3: Met office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, Devon, U.K.

Publication date: 2005-08-01

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