Skip to main content

Predicting the temperature of the Barents Sea

Buy Article:

The full text article is temporarily unavailable.

We apologise for the inconvenience. Please try again later.

Knowledge of the influence of the physical environment on commercially important fish stocks in the North Atlantic has increased during the last decade. To allow this information to be used in fisheries management, some forecast of the environment is important. Predictions of temperature in the Arcto-boreal Barents Sea have been given for many years, both as subjective opinions of scientists and implicitly in stock assessment assumptions of, e.g., mortality rates. To evaluate an objective statistical forecasting system, we have analysed time series representing mechanisms previously proposed as influencing the temperature of the Barents Sea. These include components of suggested periodic nature, large-scale advective effects, regional processes, and atmospheric teleconnections. The predictability of Barents Sea temperature based on the above mechanisms was evaluated through calculations of auto- and cross-correlations, linear regression, spectral analysis and autoregressive modelling. Forecasts based on periodic fluctuations in temperature performed poorly. Advection alone did not explain a major part of the variability. The precision of predictions six months ahead varied with season; forecasts from spring to autumn had least uncertainty. A first-order autoregressive model, including modelled atmospherically driven volume flux to the western Barents Sea during the preceding year and the position of the Gulf Stream off the eastern coast of the USA two years earlier, explained 50% of the total historical temperature variability.
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Data/Media
No Metrics

Keywords: Barents Sea; prediction; statistical methods; temperature; time series

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Present address: University of Oslo, Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, PO Box 1050 Blindern, N–0316 Oslo, Norway 2: Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, N–5024 Bergen, Norway

Publication date: 2000-06-01

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more