Spread risk of Eutypella canker of maple in Europe

Authors: Ogris, N.¹; Jurc, D.²; Jurc, M.³

Source: EPPO/OEPP Bulletin, Volume 36, Number 3, December 2006 , pp. 475-485(11)

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Abstract:

Eutypella canker of maple, caused by the pathogen Eutypella parasitica, has recently been reported for the first time in Europe. A rule-based model of Eutypella parasitica spread risk in Europe is presented. This model incorporates the effects of spatial and temporal variability of multiple variables on pathogen spread and establishment. Model predictions are based on current knowledge of host susceptibility, pathogen reproduction and pathogen transmission, with particular regard to the host species' distribution and climate suitability. Maps of host species' distributions and monthly weather conditions were spatially analyzed in a Geographic Information System using the magnitude and direction of each variable's effect on disease spread. Spread risk predictions were computed for each month and averaged to generate a cumulative risk map. The model was calibrated using data on the natural distribution of Eutypella canker in North America. Extensive areas covering the natural distribution of maples in Europe are at considerable risk from the Eutypella parasitica infection. The most endangered regions are broad areas of the Balkans, the Apennines, France, Central and Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2338.2006.01047.x

Affiliations: 1: Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia);, Email: nikica.ogris@gozdis.si 2: Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia);, Email: dusan.jurc@gozdis.si 3: Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Večna pot 83, 1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia);, Email: maja.jurc@bf.uni-lj.si

Publication date: 2006-12-01