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Modeling the probability of observing Armillaria root disease in the Black Hills

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Armillaria root disease (ARD) occurrence on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) is not uniform in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. To help manage this ecosystem, a model was developed to predict the probability of observing diseased trees. A kernel density estimator was used to estimate the probability of observing ARD using presence data from two field studies. An eight-parameter regression equation using topographical data (Universal Trans Mercator coordinates, elevation and slope) derived from a Digital Elevation Model was fitted to the estimated probabilities and the residuals kriged to produce correction factors for the regression estimates. The final model, which had a relative mean squared error of 0.128, identified two peaks of high probability in the north-west portion of the Black Hills and several peaks of moderate probability throughout the Black Hills.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 2: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mt. Research Station, 240 W., Prospect Rd., Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA

Publication date: August 1, 2003


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