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Spatio-temporal analysis of plant pests in a greenhouse using a Bayesian approach

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Abstract:

• The present study aimed to propose a method that can improve our understanding of pest outbreaks and spatio-temporal development in greenhouse crops.

• The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse rose crop grown under integrated pest management (IPM) for 21 months. The main pests observed were powdery mildew, two-spotted spider mites and western flower thrips. A quick visual sampling method was established to provide continuous monitoring of overall crop health.

• A Bayesian inferential approach was then used to analyse temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the occurrence of pests. Interactions between pest dynamics and properties of spatial evolutions were exhibited revealing the influence of biotic and abiotic factors on crop health.

• In the context of IPM, this information could be used to improve monitoring strategies by identifying periods or locations at risk. It could also facilitate the implementation of the whole IPM procedure through the identification of key factors that have a negative impact on overall crop health.

Keywords: BayesX; Bayesian inference; integrated pest management (IPM); pest dynamics; quick sampling

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-9563.2010.00483.x

Publication date: August 1, 2010

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