Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events
Authors: Robinson, E. J.1; Pendle, J. E. C.1; Rowley, M. G.2; Beck, S. R.3; McColgan, K. L. T.1
Source: British Journal of Psychology, Volume 100, Number 4, November 2009 , pp. 645-659(15)
Publisher: British Psychological Society
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Abstract:
An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die-throwing as in the published studies. With live die-throwing, children (N=64, aged 6 and 8 years; N=50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15-year-olds (N=93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen-year-olds (N=82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die-throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision-making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome.Document Type: Research article
DOI: 10.1348/000712608X386810
Affiliations: 1: Department of Psychology, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 2: Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, UK 3: University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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