Visualizing uncertainty in reliability functions with application to aero engine overhaul

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We propose an approach for estimating the date of lost confidence of jet engines, which are devices with multiple components subject to disruption. A mixed Weibull distribution is estimated from a large data set subject to censoring at various times. Parametric uncertainty is derived analytically and mapped visually onto the functions of use in reliability theory, including the hazard function. We demonstrate the use of the method on a database of disruption times for components in 325 jet engines.

Keywords: Mixed Weibull distribution; Model uncertainty; Survival analysis; Weibull mixture model

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: University of Oxford, UK 2: Rolls-Royce plc, Derby, UK

Publication date: January 1, 2010

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