Estimating the transmission probability of human immunodeficiency virus in injecting drug users in Thailand

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Abstract:

We estimate the transmission probability for the human immunodeficiency virus from seroconversion data of a cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs) in Thailand. The transmission probability model developed accounts for interval censoring and incorporates each IDU's reported frequency of needle sharing and injecting acts. Using maximum likelihood methods, the per needle sharing act transmission probability estimate between infectious and susceptible IDUs is 0.008. The effects of covariates, disease dynamics, mismeasured exposure information and the uncertainty of the disease prevalence on the transmission probability estimate are considered.

Keywords: Human immunodeficiency virus; Injecting drug user; Interval censoring; Transmission probability

Document Type: Original Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00216

Affiliations: 1: Emory University, Atlanta, USA, 2: Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, Thailand, 3: Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand, 4: HIV/AIDS Collaboration, Nonthaburi, Thailand and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA

Publication date: January 1, 2001

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