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Bayesian inference for rare errors in populations with unequal unit sizes

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Abstract:

We describe a Bayesian model for a scenario in which the population of errors contains many 0s and there is a known covariate. This kind of structure typically occurs in auditing, and we use auditing as the driving application of the method. Our model is based on a categorization of the error population together with a Bayesian nonparametric method of modelling errors within some of the categories. Inference is through simulation. We conclude with an example based on a data set provided by the UK's National Audit Office.

Keywords: Auditing; Bayesian inference; Dirichlet process; Nonparametric modelling; Rare errors; Simulation

Document Type: Original Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00213

Affiliations: University of Sheffield, UK

Publication date: January 1, 2000

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