Forecasting obesity trends in England

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Forecasts of trends in obesity in England for 2010 are produced by treating the available data, which contain the proportions of the population, categorized by age and sex, falling into different body mass index ranges, as compositional data sets, so that the implicit simplex restrictions are automatically satisfied. Forecasts are calculated by using linear trend models for the log-ratio transformations and are accompanied by prediction regions. The advantages of treating data on proportions compositionally are emphasized and compared with forecasts that have been obtained by ignoring this restriction.

Keywords: Compositional data analysis; Demographic forecasting; Health forecasting; Multivariate time series; Prediction intervals; Regression

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: Loughborough University, UK

Publication date: January 1, 2009

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