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Modelling human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome cases in Scotland: data sources, prior information and Bayesian estimation

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The paper describes the methodology developed to carry out predictions of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in Scotland. Information on the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic comes from formal case reports of AIDS cases and HIV positive tests, reports from surveillance schemes and from special studies. These sources of information, up to the end of 1994, are reviewed. Prior information on aspects of HIV disease is available from various published and unpublished sources. A simple model of the HIV epidemic in Scotland is proposed and the information is summarized in terms of this model. Bayesian methodology, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, is described and used to predict future cases of AIDS in Scotland and people who will be living with AIDS in the years 1995–1999.
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Keywords: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; Bayesian methods; Gibbs sampling; Human immunodeficiency virus; Prediction; Survival

Document Type: Original Article

Affiliations: 1: Napier University, Edinburgh, UK, 2: Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health, Glasgow, UK

Publication date: 1998-01-01

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