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Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All-Hazards Framework

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Abstract:

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

Keywords: All hazards; consequence; critical asset protection; decision; homeland security; risk analysis; security; terrorism; threat; vulnerability

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00911.x

Affiliations: Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.

Publication date: August 1, 2007

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