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On the Use of Hierarchical Probabilistic Models for Characterizing and Managing Uncertainty in Risk/Safety Assessment

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Abstract:

A general probabilistically-based approach is proposed for both cancer and noncancer risk/safety assessments. The familiar framework of the original ADI/RfD formulation is used, substituting in the numerator a benchmark dose derived from a hierarchical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model and in the denominator a unitary uncertainty factor derived from a hierarchical animal/average human/sensitive human model. The empirical probability distributions of the numerator and denominator can be combined to produce an empirical human-equivalent distribution for an animal-derived benchmark dose in external-exposure units.

Keywords: ADI; Bayesian; Monte Carlo; RfD; empirical distribution; unitary factor

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00895.x

Affiliations: Biometry Branch, National Center for Toxicological Research, Jefferson, AR 72079, USA.

Publication date: 2007-04-01

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