Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

Authors: Thompson, Kimberly M.; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J.¹; Pallansch, Mark A.²; Kew, Olen M.²; Sutter, Roland W.³; Aylward, R. Bruce³; Watkins, Margaret⁴; Gary, Howard⁴; Alexander, James P.²; Venczel, Linda⁴; Johnson, Denise⁴; Cáceres, Victor M.⁵; Sangrujee, Nalinee⁶; Jafari, Hamid⁴; Cochi, Stephen L.⁴

Source: Risk Analysis, Volume 26, Number 6, December 2006 , pp. 1571-1580(10)

Publisher: Blackwell Publishing

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Abstract:

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.

Keywords: Decision analysis; dynamic disease model; outbreak; polio eradication; process; risk analysis; uncertainty; variability

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00841.x

Affiliations: 1: Kids Risk Project, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave., 3rd Floor, Boston, MA 02115, USA. 2: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Division of Viral Diseases, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. 3: World Health Organization, Polio Eradication Initiative, CH-1211 Geneva. 4: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Global Immunization Division, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. 5: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Coordinating Office for Global Health, Division of Epidemiology and Surveillance Capacity Development, Program Development Branch, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. 6: Futures Group, Washington, DC 20005

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