IngentaConnect A Different Conjunction Fallacy

Authors: Bonini N.; Tentori K.; Osherson D.

Source: Mind & Language, Volume 19, Number 2, April 2004 , pp. 199-210(12)

Publisher: Blackwell Publishing

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Abstract:

: Because the conjunction p-and-q implies p, the value of a bet on p-and-q cannot exceed the value of a bet on p at the same stakes. We tested recognition of this principle in a betting paradigm that (a) discouraged misreading p as p-and-not-q, and (b) encouraged genuinely conjunctive reading of p-and-q. Frequent violations were nonetheless observed. The findings appear to discredit the idea that most people spontaneously integrate the logic of conjunction into their assessments of chance.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0017.2004.00254.x

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