Reproduction Rates in Multiregion Modeling Systems for HIV/AIDS
Author: Thomas, Richard
Source: Journal of Regional Science, Volume 39, Number 2, May 1999 , pp. 359-385(27)
Abstract:The persistence of HIV/AIDS has seen a revival of academic interest in the development of modeling systems to assist understanding the population dynamics of this infection. Moreover, it has become increasingly recognized that a key component of these systems for interpreting disease prevention is their reproduction rate, which provides an indication of whether an epidemic might start in a community described by a particular set of epidemiological characteristics. The properties of these rates have been explored in detail for models of a single risk behavior but not for multiregion formats that allow for the transfer of infection between geographical units. Therefore, in this paper I derive reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model together with their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin. These statistics are interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS. In the discussion I examine the potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention.
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
Publication date: 1999-05-01