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Reproduction Rates in Multiregion Modeling Systems for HIV/AIDS

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Abstract:

The persistence of HIV/AIDS has seen a revival of academic interest in the development of modeling systems to assist understanding the population dynamics of this infection. Moreover, it has become increasingly recognized that a key component of these systems for interpreting disease prevention is their reproduction rate, which provides an indication of whether an epidemic might start in a community described by a particular set of epidemiological characteristics. The properties of these rates have been explored in detail for models of a single risk behavior but not for multiregion formats that allow for the transfer of infection between geographical units. Therefore, in this paper I derive reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model together with their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin. These statistics are interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS. In the discussion I examine the potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9787.00138

Affiliations: University of Manchester, Manchester, UK

Publication date: May 1, 1999

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