Before the peak: impacts of oil shortages on the developing world

Authors: Ebenhack, Ben W.; Martínez, Daniel M.

Source: International Social Science Journal, Volume 57, Supplement 1, May 2009 , pp. 71-78(8)

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Abstract:

We explore the generally ignored reality that the petroleum shortage will occur before oil peaks, when the rate of growth falls below the rate of the growth of demand. This underscores the fact that the shortage with concomitant price increases will occur relatively soon, even if ultimate reserves are found to be more than is currently believed. Indeed, an energy shortage already exists for the half of humanity that lacks access to modern energy. Supply constraints for affluent, industrialised consumers will adversely affect energy imports for developing countries and at the same time increase international pressure on the developing world's resources for the export market. Many resources that have been deemed sub-commercial in these regions will be re-evaluated in light of higher prices. This will offer some opportunity to earn foreign trade, but at the cost of resources that could be tapped for local development. The development community has an opportunity to help those regions achieve energy security through the development of these resources locally by enhancing professional capacity and offering technical expertise.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2451.2009.00707.x

Affiliations: 1: University of Rochester

Publication date: 2009-05-01