International Relations and Policy Planning: The Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building

Authors: Neumann I.B.¹; Øverland E.F.²

Source: International Studies Perspectives, Volume 5, Number 3, August 2004 , pp. 258-277(20)

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Abstract:

Since thoughts about the future cannot help but enter into our planning of policy, the International Relations community should make it an aim to help systematize these thoughts. One way of doing this is by developing a methodology for scenario building. Much extant work on scenario planning shares a key weakness that is well known in traditional socioeconomic planning, namely a tendency to reify current trends. In order to break with this tendency, this article sets out an approach that we call perspectivist scenario building. We also try to illustrate the points made and demonstrate the value added for planners by reflecting on our own experience in participation-oriented scenario work with Norwegian bureaucrats and politicians in the framework of a broad-scoped national scenario project for the Norwegian Government in the period between 1998 and 2001, called Norway 2030.

Keywords: policy planning; futures; world modeling

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3577.2004.00173.x

Affiliations: 1: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 2: Ocean Futures AS

Publication date: 2004-08-01