ECONOMIC VOTING AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR: HOW DO INDIVIDUAL, LOCAL, AND NATIONAL FACTORS AFFECT THE PARTISAN CHOICE?

Author: Leigh, Andrew

Source: Economics and Politics, Volume 17, Number 2, July 2005 , pp. 265-296(32)

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Abstract:

What impact do income and other demographic factors have on a voter's partisan choice? Using post-election surveys of 14,000 voters in 10 Australian elections between 1966 and 2001, I explore the impact that individual, local, and national factors have on voters' decisions. In these 10 elections, the poor, foreign-born, younger voters, voters born since 1950, men, and those who are unmarried are more likely to be left-wing. Over the past 35 years, the partisan gap between men and women has closed, but the partisan gap has widened on three dimensions: between young and old; between rich and poor; and between native-born and foreign-born. At a neighborhood level, I find that, controlling for a respondent's own characteristics, and instrumenting for neighborhood characteristics, voters who live in richer neighborhoods are more likely to be right-wing, while those in more ethnically diverse or unequal neighborhoods are more likely to be left-wing. Controlling for incumbency, macroeconomic factors do not seem to affect partisan preferences – Australian voters apparently regard both major parties as equally capable of governing in booms and busts.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.2005.00154.x

Affiliations: 1: Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University , Email: andrew.leigh@anu.edu.au

Publication date: 2005-07-01