The drivers of international migration to the UK: A panel-based Bayesian model averaging approach

Authors: Mitchell, James¹; Pain, Nigel²; Riley, Rebecca³

Source: The Economic Journal, Volume 121, Number 557, 1 December 2011 , pp. 1398-1444(47)

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Abstract:

A heterogeneous panel-based Bayesian model averaging approach is used to identify the robust economic and policy drivers of international migration to the UK from 14 different source regions over 1980-2007. Around three-quarters of the increase in net immigration over the last decade, which is particularly pronounced for selected source regions, is associated with structural change, which may be attributed to UK and foreign immigration policy. The remainder of the rise is largely explained by `friends and family' effects. There are considerable uncertainties associated both with the effects of particular economic drivers of immigration and with forecasts of immigration.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02459.x

Affiliations: 1: University of Leicester and National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London 2: OECD, Paris 3: National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London

Publication date: 2011-12-01