@article {Chang:October 1999:0013-0133:636,
	author = "Chang, P. H. K.",
	author = "Osler, C. L.",
	title = "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-rate Forecasts",
	journal = "The Economic Journal",
	volume = "109",
	year = "October 1999",
	abstract = "Substantial empirical research documents that exchange-rate forecasts are not formed rationally. This paper identifies a common technical trading signal, the head-and-shoulders pattern, as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange-rate forecasts. Forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994, using two criteria for rationality: profitability and efficiency. Resulting profits, replicable in real-time, are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique. We find that the rule is profitable, but not efficient, since it is dominated by simpler trading rules.",
	pages = "636-661(26)",
	url = "http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/ecoj/1999/00000109/00000458/art00007"
	doi = "doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00466"
}