From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Author: Hakimian, Hassan

Source: Development and Change, Volume 37, Number 3, May 2006 , pp. 571-597(27)

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Abstract:

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short-term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio-economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far-reaching sways in Iran's post-revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility `boom' and `bust' phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the `Islamic baby boom' as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0012-155X.2006.00491.x

Affiliations: 1: Senior Lecturer in Economics and Associate Dean at Cass Business School, City University, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK ( )., Email: H.Hakimian@city.ac.uk

Publication date: 2006-05-01