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Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum

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Abstract.  In this study, we investigate the short run effect of the 30 October 1995 Quebec referendum on the common stock returns of Quebec firms. Our results show that the uncertainty surrounding the referendum outcome had an impact on stock returns of Quebec firms. We also find that the effect of the referendum varied with the political risk exposure of Quebec firms, that is, the structure of assets and principally the degree of foreign involvement. JEL classification: G14, G15

L’incertitude politique et rendements boursiers: Résultats relatifs au référendum québécois de 1995. 

Dans cette étude, nous examinons l’impact à court terme du référendum québécois du 30 octobre 1995 sur les rendements boursiers d’entreprises ayant leur siège social au Québec. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’incertitude entourant les résultats du référendum a eu un effet à court terme sur les rendements boursiers des entreprises québécoises. Ils montrent aussi que l’impact du référendum a varié avec l’exposition des entreprises québécoises au risque politique, à savoir, leur type d’actifs et surtout leur degré de participation étrangère.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00363.x

Affiliations: 1: Faculté des sciences de l’administration, Université Laval 2: HEC Montréal 3: Department of Business Administration, Royal Military College of Canada

Publication date: May 1, 2006

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