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Modeling and Real-Time Prediction of Classical Swine Fever Epidemics

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Summary.

We propose a new method to analyze outbreak data of an infectious disease such as classical swine fever. The underlying model is a two-type branching process. It is used to deduce information concerning the epidemic from detected cases. In particular, the method leads to prediction of the future course of the epidemic and hence can be used as a basis for control policy decisions. We test the model with data from the large 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. It turns out that our results are in good agreement with the data.
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Keywords: Branching process; Classical swine fever; EM algorithm; Maximum likelihood; Modeling of epidemics; Prediction of epidemics

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: 1: Mathematical Institute, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80010, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands 2: Institute for Animal Science and Health, Department of Immunology, Pathobiology and Epidemiology, P.O. Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands

Publication date: 2002-03-01

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