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The reliability of an ‘off-the-shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model for use in climate impact assessment: uncertainty quantification using Latin hypercube sampling

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Abstract:

Much uncertainty is derived from the application of conceptual rainfall runoff models. In this paper, HYSIM, an ‘off-the-shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model, is applied to a suite of catchments throughout Ireland in preparation for use in climate impact assessment. Parameter uncertainty is assessed using the GLUE methodology. Given the lack of source code available for the model, parameter sampling is carried out using Latin hypercube sampling. Uncertainty bounds are constructed for model output. These bounds will be used to quantify uncertainty in future simulations as they include error derived from data measurement, model structure and parameterization.

Keywords: Ireland; Latin hypercube sampling; climate change; hydrologic model; transferability; uncertainty

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2006.00656.x

Affiliations: Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland, Email: conor.m.murphy@nuim.ie

Publication date: 2006-03-01

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