Seasonality and Industrial Production in Uganda

Authors: Mugambe, Gloria Kempaka; Reilly, Barry

Source: African Development Review, Volume 19, Number 3, December/Décembre 2007 , pp. 501-518(18)

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Abstract:

Abstract:

This paper explores the seasonal dimension of industrial production activity in Uganda using monthly data covering the period 1987 to 2000. Unit root tests and structural time series modelling are used to ascertain the nature of the seasonal component. The evidence in support of stochastic seasonality is not found to be overwhelming. In treating the seasonal effects as deterministic we find, in contrast to the existing evidence from industrialized economies, only a small part of the total variation in output is explained by seasonal factors suggesting a greater role for cyclical and random factors. However, there is some casual empirical evidence suggesting that industrial activity is related to weather conditions.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2007.00173.x

Affiliations: 1: Corresponding author: Barry Reilly, Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QN, UK., Email: b.m.reilly@sussex.ac.uk

Publication date: 2007-12-01