Problematic practice in integrated impact assessment: the role of consultants and predictive computer models in burying uncertainty

Author: Duncan, Ronlyn

Source: Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Volume 26, Number 1, March 2008 , pp. 53-66(14)

Publisher: Beech Tree Publishing

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Abstract:

It is well known in impact assessment that predictive model outputs will be as credible as their inputs and that model assumptions will drive outputs. What is less well known is how the practice of integrated impact assessment with its pervasive use of predictive computer models and multiple teams of consultants can influence evidence relied upon in deliberations over the impacts and benefits of major projects. This paper draws on an integrated impact assessment of a major energy infrastructure project in Australia known as Basslink to examine the epistemic implications of current practice. It will be argued that what has become standard procedure can serve to diminish the disclosure of prediction uncertainty.

Keywords: AUSTRALIA; BASSLINK; PREDICTIVE COMPUTER MODELS; CERTAINTY TROUGH; INTEGRATED IMPACT ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION; UNCERTAINTY; SIMULATIONS

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.3152/146155108X303931

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