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Research on Probability Distribution of Extreme Wind Speed in Maize Growth Period

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The extreme wind event in maize growth period is the main direct reason of lodging in maize. It is very helpful to know its probability distribution for measuring the wind-induced environmental lodging stress to maize. In this study, using the daily extreme wind speed data from 1966 to 2009 at Qingdao and Weihai meteorology stations in Shandong Province and the local maize growth period data, three probability distributions (i.e., Gumbel, Lognormal, and Normal) and two parameter estimation methods (i.e., Maximum Likelihood, and Moment) were used to investigate the best probability model of the extreme wind in maize growth period. The results of different estimation methods were compared by three testing indexes (i.e., Kolmogorov Index, Residual Variance, and Relative Deviation). It demonstrated that the Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood estimation was the best model, and also indicated that distribution type is more important than parameter estimation type in modeling extreme wind probability. Our results can provide direct supports for site selection used for maize variety's lodging resistance test, and guide the precision application of different maize varieties with lower risk of lodging.
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Keywords: DISTRIBUTION FITTING TEST; EXTREME WIND SPEED; MAIZE GROWTH PERIOD; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 01 January 2012

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