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The Current and Future Potential Geographic Range of Corynespora Leaf Fall Disease in China

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Abstract:

Corynespora Leaf Fall Disease (CLFD), caused by Corynespora cassiicola (Berk. & Curt.) Wei, is considered a destructive disease of Hevea brasiliensis (Müll. Arg.), and it has posed a serious threat to the healthy development of the natural rubber industry. CLIMEX and ArcGIS were used to determine the potential geographic range of CLFD in the areas of H. brasiliensis cultivation in China under the current environmental conditions. They were also used to assess the distribution sensitivity of C. cassiicola in China based on future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, the area suitable for CLFD encompassed 72% of the total area of H. brasiliensis cultivation, of which 48.6% was projected to have optimal conditions, including areas of H. brasiliensis cultivation in Hainan, Guangxi, most of Guangdong, Hekou in Yunnan, the southern part of Taiwan and Yunxiao in Fujian. As a result of climate change, the distribution of C. cassiicola in China is projected to extend northwards, and areas with optimal conditions will expand. We therefore suggest that monitoring and early warning should be enhanced in the areas suitable for CLFD.

Keywords: ARCGIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMEX; CORYNESPORA LEAF FALL DISEASE; DISEASE DISTRIBUTION

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1166/sl.2012.1885

Publication date: January 1, 2012

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