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Extreme Indian Monsoon Rainfall Years and the Sunspot Cycle

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The objective of the present study is to examine the predictability of extreme Indian rainfall years. The all-India rainfall and recently defined spectrally homogeneous region (SHR7) are studied in relation with negative of second derivative (represented as –S′′m) of annual sunspot numbers for the period 1871–2005. We argue that SHR7, which includes sub-divisions from west central and peninsular India, may be more appropriate rainfall index in compare to all-India for such analysis. It is shown that SHR7 shows more symmetric relation when predicting excess and deficit rainfall years in relation with –S′′m than all-India rainfall. Examination of the SHR7 rainfall and the –S′′m shows that all the maxima of even sunspot cycles coincide with excess rainfall (with +1 year error) and all the minima of odd sunspot cycles coincide with deficit rainfall (with ±2 year error). Also probability of excess rainfall at or around the –S′′m maxima is calculated as 0.82 and that of deficit rainfall with –S′′m minima is 0.75. Respective probabilities for All-India data are 0.64 and 0.5.
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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 2011-11-01

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