Percentage-Based versus Statistical-Power-Based Vote Tabulation Audits
Authors: McCarthy, John1; Stanislevic, Howard1; Lindeman, Mark2; Ash, Arlene S.3; Addona, Vittorio4; Batcher, Mary5
Source: The American Statistician, Volume 62, Number 1, February 2008 , pp. 11-16(6)
Publisher: American Statistical Association
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Abstract:
Several pending federal and state electoral-integrity bills specify hand audits of 1% to 10% of all precincts. However, percentage-based audits are usually inefficient, because they require large samples for large jurisdictions, even though the sample needed to achieve good accuracy is much more affected by the closeness of the contest than population size. Percentage-based audits can also be ineffective, since close contests may require auditing a large fraction of the total to provide confidence in the outcome. We present a plausible statistical frame-work that we have used in advising state and local election officials and legislators. In recent federal elections, this audit model would have required approximately the same effort and resources as the less effective percentage-based audits now being considered.Keywords: ELECTION AUDITS; ELECTION RECOUNTS; ELECTRONIC VOTING; PRECINCT SAMPLING
Document Type: Research article
DOI: 10.1198/000313008X273779
Affiliations: 1: Bard College, P.O. Box 5000, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504 2: Assistant Professor of Political Studies, Bard College, P.O. Box 5000, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504 3: Department of Medicine, Boston University, 801 Massachusetts Avenue, 2nd Floor, Boston, MA 02118 4: Mathematics and Computer Science, Macalester College, 1600 Grand Avenue, Saint Paul, MN. 55105 5: Statistics and Sampling, Quantitative Economics and Statistics, National Tax, Ernst & Young LLP, 1101 New York Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20005
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