Authors: Roze, S.¹; Liens, D.²; Palmer, A.¹; Berger, W.³; Tucker, D.¹; Renaudin, C.²

Source: Current Medical Research and Opinion, Volume 22, Number 12, December 2006 , pp. 2549-2556(8)

Publisher: Informa Healthcare

Abstract:

Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe a health economic model developed to project lifetime clinical and cost outcomes of lipid-modifying interventions in patients not reaching target lipid levels and to assess the validity of the model.

Methods: The internet-based, computer simulation model is made up of two decision analytic sub-models, the first utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, and the second applying Markov modeling techniques. Monte Carlo simulation generates a baseline cohort for long-term simulation by assigning an individual lipid profile to each patient, and applying the treatment effects of interventions under investigation. The Markov model then estimates the long-term clinical (coronary heart disease events, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy) and cost outcomes up to a lifetime horizon, based on risk equations from the Framingham study. Internal and external validation analyses were performed.

Results: The results of the model validation analyses, plotted against corresponding real-life values from Framingham, 4S, AFCAPS/TexCAPS, and a meta-analysis by Gordon et al., showed that the majority of values were close to the y = x line, which indicates a perfect fit. The R² value was 0.9575 and the gradient of the regression line was 0.9329, both very close to the perfect fit (= 1).

Conclusions: Validation analyses of the computer simulation model suggest the model is able to recreate the outcomes from published clinical studies and would be a valuable tool for the evaluation of new and existing therapy options for patients with persistent dyslipidemia.

Keywords: CORONARY HEART DISEASE; COST-EFFECTIVENESS; DYSLIPIDEMIA; HDL-C; MODELING; STATIN

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1185/030079906X148490

Affiliations: 1: CORE - Center for Outcomes Research, A Unit of IMS, Basel, Switzerland 2: Merck Santé, Lyon, France 3: Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany

Publication date: 2006-12-01

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