"I Knew It All Along" Under All Conditions? or Possibly "I Could Not Have Expected It to Happen" Under Some Conditions? Comments on Mark and Mellor (1994)

Authors: Mazursky D.; Ofir C.

Source: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 66, Number 2, May 1996 , pp. 237-240(4)

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Abstract:

Research conducted by Mazursky and Ofir (1990) suggests that the reaction to a surprising event may take the form of `I could not have expected it to happen' rather than `I knew it all along,' as implied by the hindsight bias. Mazursky and Ofir (1990) postulated that people may acknowledge their surprise at highly unexpected outcomes. When asked to provide retrospective judgments, they would tend to provide judgments that are not in accordance with the hindsight bias. Instead, their judgments represent either the elimination of the bias or even its reversal. The present paper responds to Mark and Mellor's (1994) comments and also addresses general questions regarding the hindsight bias and its reversal. The alternative hypotheses and interpretations offered by them are discussed in detail, shown to be invalid, and ruled out. The robustness of hindsight bias is affirmed but it is strongly recommended that the reversal hypothesis offered by Mazursky and Ofir (1990) be accommodated.

Language: English

Document Type: Research article

Affiliations: School of Business Administration, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel

Publication date: 1996-05-01