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Product, Money, and Foreign Exchange Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan During the Period 1994-2000

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In this study a macroeconomic framework is developed and applied ascertaining the influence of domestic disequilibria and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:Q1 to 2000:Q3, several long-run relationships are estimated for goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which are characterised by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error-correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate vis-à-vis the parallel market rate have had a significant influence on the short-run behaviour of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity and the quality of quarterly data available on the Uzbek economy.

Keywords: Uzbekistan; demand for money; inflation dynamics; output gaps

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 2003-11-27

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