Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations
Abstract:This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. Learning breaks the tight link between fundamentals and equilibrium prices, inducing periods of erroneous optimism or pessimism about future returns to capital and wages which subsequent data partially validate. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and propagates technology shocks. Moreover, it produces agents' forecast errors consistent with business cycle properties of forecast errors for a wide range of variables from the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: October 1, 2011
More about this publication?
- The American Economic Review is a general-interest economics journal. The journal is published quarterly and contains articles on a broad range of topics. Established in 1911, the AER is among the nation's oldest and most respected scholarly journals in the economics profession.
- Editorial Board
- Information for Authors
- Subscribe to this Title
- Membership Information
- Terms & Conditions
- e-Publications for AEA Members
- ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites