IngentaConnect Dominating the Multiple Sclerosis Market: Battle of The Big Three...

Abstract:

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurological disorder affecting approximately 2 million people globally. The pharmaceutical market for MS therapy is currently dominated by interferon-based drugs - Avonex® from Biogen, Betaseron® from Berlex Laboratories and Schering, and Rebif® from Serono and Pfizer. The only other major market brand is Copaxone® (glatiramer acetate) from Teva and Aventis. The global MS market achieved sales of $US2.9 billion in 2002 and is forecast to grow to $US4.7 billion by 2006.

Avonex currently dominates market share because of its convenience of administration. However, as efficacy is increasingly becoming the clear driving factor for market penetration, the market share for Avonex is predicted to decrease relative to that of Rebif and Betaseron. An opinion leader in the US predicts that the key to success in the MS market is effective marketing of clinical trial data to prescribing neurologists. Differential cost of interferon brands is not considered to be a market driver - in the US, at least. Copaxone has traditionally been reserved for patients who fail interferon therapy but some neurologists are now prescribing the drug to patients with early-stage MS. If this behavior becomes more widely adopted, Copaxone will increase market share significantly. Few new challengers are close to market. The most advanced of the drug candidates coming through the pipeline is Antegren® (natalizumab), a humanized monoclonal antibody in phase III clinical trials with Biogen. If its efficacy in phase II is confirmed in phase III, Antegren could seriously challenge the other brands in the market.

Lehman Brothers predicts that Avonex will maintain its status as the leading brand in both the global and US markets through to 2006, but will see its market share decline over this period. Betaseron is set for a small decline in market share whereas Rebif will more or less maintain its percentage of the global market but will see dramatic growth in the US segment. However, as the market size increases, all three brands will capture increasing revenues. Copaxone will also record increasing sales over this period while maintaining a market share of around 20-25%. Antegren is predicted to enter the market in 2005 and grab single-digit market share. Other drugs in development will not hit the market in this timeframe.

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Dominating the Multiple Sclerosis Market: Battle of The Big Three Biologicals